New figures published by the Census Bureau continue to tell one aspect of the tale of America's sharp new world coming into focus.
Economist Joel Kolko dug into the new numbers and computed the mode (or the most frequently occurring number) age of racial groups:
Race/Ethnicity |
Most common age in US |
White |
57 |
Asian |
28 |
Native American |
27 |
Black |
26 |
Hispanic |
10 |
Mixed |
0 |
538 looked at the new numbers as well and came up with the equally interesting median age of racial groups:
In 2016, America grew yet more diverse. Just 61 percent of U.S. residents were non-Hispanic white, down from 64 percent in 2010 and 76 percent in 1990. Two forces boost racial and ethnic diversity in the U.S. First, immigration adds to diversity because most immigrants are Hispanic or Asian. But second, even if immigration stopped, diversity would still increase as more diverse younger generations replace older, whiter generations. As of June 2017, the median age for whites in the U.S. was 43, compared with 36 for Asians, 34 for blacks and 29 for Hispanics.
Of course we all have some sense of our Demographic future in the aggregate:
Even though politicians often describe “real America” as a small town in the Midwest, statistically the most typical metro area is New Haven, Connecticut. Small towns in Ohio today look demographically more like 1950s America than any place else does, but metro New Haven and Tampa, Florida, look most like America today. 4
America tomorrow, however, won’t look like America today: The Census Bureau has projected the age distribution and the racial and ethnic mix of the population out to 2060. The white share of the population is expected to fall from 61.3 percent in 2016 to 43.6 percent in 2060, while the shares of Hispanics and Asians increase significantly. The U.S. is projected to cease being majority non-Hispanic white in 2044. And the U.S. will continue to age, with the 55-plus share of the population rising from 28 percent in 2016 to 35 percent in 2060.
Urbanization is projected to continue as well with rural areas continuing to shrink and urban, suburban, and exurban areas continuing to expand. Notably:
In all, 1,350 nonmetro counties lost population from 2010 through 2016, a new record. Migration to other counties accounted for all of that decrease and then some. But the percentage of residents moving away from rural counties was actually much higher in the 1950s, 1960s and 1980s. What’s changed is that a steady decline through the decades in natural population increase (births minus deaths) in rural America means that the natural increase is no longer big enough to offset the outmigration. In hundreds of rural counties, in fact, deaths are now outpacing births.
Politically, what lessons can we glean from this data?
First, 80% of America's counties are rural but only represent 20% of the population and Trump won them overwhelmingly. Because of the way power is distributed in America, less and less people in older and whiter counties will continue to have extensive power in government at the federal level and over most states. Furthermore, if these older, whiter people continue feel as culturally alienated from the urban majority as they do now, we can expect them become increasingly more conservative and Republican.
Second is that the vast numbers of young people of color coming of age (and bearing their own children) are going to have to bear the increasing costs to care for the older, rural population. That creates interesting power dynamics in terms of support for entitlement programs and taxes to pay for them. Republicans may find themselves suddenly more supportive of entitlement programs for the rural elderly and the increasing tax burden for their care shifted onto younger folks who live in cities. Democrats might begin to think shifting resources to to younger urban people who vote for them makes more sense than paying for older rural people who don't.
In other words, I expect more and sharper political division for the foreseeable future. Mainly racially and culturally, but also economically. Extensively educated wealthier, younger whites who live in cities may prove to be as culturally alien to low income rural, older whites as poor city folk of color.
Economically, there is the second issue of technology and automation and its effects on employment and inequality. Obviously people of color aren't new to income inequality. That's been a feature of life in America since day one. But the number of of non-college educated whites who feel the pinch is likely to increase. These are probably the last urban and suburban city dwellers who feel similar cultural affinity with the rural folk as they see up close how outnumbered they are becoming.
In short, I expect America's future to be rocky and contentious until the cultural division is resolved by one side or the other. The elections of both Barack Obama and Donald Trump are examples of the push and pull between these two forces at work. I expect things will continue to swing back and forth until one side establishes a clear resolution.