Time/CNN has just released new battelground polls and it shows good news for Obama!

Colorado:  McCain 47, Obama 46

Nevada:  Obama 49, McCain 44

New Mexico:  Obama 53, McCain 40

Pennsylvania:  Obama 48 McCain 44

http://www.time.com/...

Hillary nailed it. If this was a routine on the balance beam, she's get the gold without any questions asked regardless of the performance of underage Chinese gymnasts.

But, of course, that is not the story.

The Diageo/Hotline national poll has Obama up by four points.

It was taken August 18-24 with the margin of error at 3.0%.  Obama is at 44 percent, McCain at 40, with 13 percent undecided (no third party candidates).

Or 7 in 10 at least say they are trying to reduce their carbon footprint.  That's according to a new ABC News/Planet Green/Stanford University Poll released August 9th.

Yes, this headline appears very much a result of higher gasoline prices, and so:

59 percent say they're using less gasoline -- driving less, using smaller, more fuel-efficient cars, carpooling, taking mass transit and the like.

Yet it goes beyond just gasoline:

60 percent, also say they're cutting their consumption of power (and water), and 33 percent are recycling

(Bumped -- kos)

You may recall this same USA/Gallup from last month, wherein McCain was up by 4 with Likely Voters, but this time around it's Obama by 3. Do we really think things have changed so much, or did Gallup just screw up the last poll? McCain's never above 45 anywhere else, which tells you something about his appeal.

The national polls and the trackers are simply not showing a surge for McCain. Obama leads by 2 to 5 points in the last 7 non-trackers over the last week (and ties or leads the trackers.) But you can bet that, flawed concept or not, if McCain had gone from 4 down to 3 up in the Gallup poll, it'd be plastered all over the news.

These numbers are from USA Today and Polling Report.

Presidential choice
LV Aug. 21-23 (July) (June) MoE +/- 4

Obama  48 (45) (50)
McCain 45 (49) (44)

Other tidbits:

• On Obama, half of those surveyed worry he "may be too closely aligned with people who hold radical political views," and 57% say they're concerned he lacks the experience to be an effective president. Basically unchanged since June: 53% say he can handle the responsibilities of commander in chief; 44% say he can't.

• On McCain, four in 10 worry he is too old to be president — he turns 72 on Friday — and 67% say they're concerned he'll pursue policies too similar to Bush. Nearly half of respondents, 48%, say McCain has attacked Obama unfairly, compared with 30% who say Obama has unfairly attacked McCain.

Like the other polls show, this one says McCain is developing a reputation as unfairly attacking, as well as being too close to Bush. Obama's problems are inexperience and radical politics. The latter the convention should deal with, the former is supposed to be what Biden is for.

And as we all know, the media is fixated on Obama's problems and ignores McCain's (the polls say the Bush-McCain association has been made, for example, and will only be reinforced by a GOP convention featuring George W. Bush.)

In any case, another poll, another very small Obama lead within the MoE, another day gone, and things get interesting tomorrow with Michelle Obama's speech.

Let the games begin.

Reports of a surging McCain are greatly exaggerated. While Obama and McCain are mobilizing supporters and maintaining a close race, the numbers on this most recent ABC/WaPo poll have changed about as much as the other national polls - by a point or two, Obama leading.

Presidential choice RV 8/19-22 (July) (June)

Obama 49 (50) (49)

McCain 43 (42) (45)

The Registered Voter numbers (prior to the Biden announcement) are +6 Obama, but WaPo also offers Likely Voter numbers with trends (who is a likely voter this year remains unclear). This is a good example of current LV screens favoring McCain, whose demographic of older voters fits better into LV classification [more on LV's here from Mark Blumenthal]:

Presidential choice LV 8/19-22 (July) (June)
Obama  49 (49) (47)
McCain 45 (46) (48)

As for particulars:

The focus on foreign policy crises over the past month, including the Russian invasion of Georgia, has played to McCain's perceived strengths among the electorate. He holds 2 to 1 leads over Obama in the new poll as the candidate with better knowledge of world affairs and the one who would make a better commander in chief. He is also regarded as superior to Obama in combating international terrorism and has a slender advantage on international affairs generally, the latter thanks to a clear edge among independents.

But on the question of who is better equipped to deal with specific foreign policy problems, McCain's advantages are less apparent. Voters rate McCain and Obama evenly on handling the situation in Iraq, and McCain has a negligible advantage in dealing with U.S. relations with Russia.

And it is Obama who continues to hold a lead on dealing with the nation's flagging economy, although his margin on that crucial question is somewhat narrower than it was a month ago. Where Obama is strongest is in public assessments of his candidacy and personality. He has a better than 2 to 1 edge as the more optimistic candidate and a 21-point advantage on who would do more to stand up to special interests.

Although both candidates have tried to stress their desire to govern in a bipartisan fashion, voters by a 12-point margin see Obama as the one more likely to work cooperatively with Republicans and Democrats in Congress.

Usual enthusiasm gap:

Nevertheless, McCain's candidacy cannot match Obama's on enthusiasm. More voters are enthusiastic about Obama's run than McCain's, and while almost all of those who support a candidate are enthusiastically behind their pick, Obama's backers are about twice as likely to call themselves "very enthusiastic," 52 to 28 percent.

This is a bit different, though:

As for the general tenor of the campaign, about two-thirds, 64 percent, said Obama is primarily focused on addressing the issues; 45 percent said so of McCain. On McCain's campaign, about as many, 48 percent, said he was instead mainly focused on attacking Obama.

Our friends, the ex-Republicans:

Independents overall remain about evenly split in their vote preferences: 45 percent support Obama, 43 percent McCain. Each candidate garners an identical 59 percent favorable rating from independents, underscoring some voters' tough choices ahead.

Separately, Polling Report has a good summary of the Biden reaction with the voters. Between Fox and ABC/WaPo polls, the Biden choice makes no difference among 75% of responders (ABC/WaPo), and is a wash among Fox responders (Dems like the choice 3:1, opposite with the GOP). [Gallup and Rasmussen agree, but note that older voters like Biden, complementing Obama's appeal with younger voters.]

Bottom line is that, for now, the electorate remains polarized. Perhaps the best way (and maybe the only way) to break through is to elect a Democrat and show they can govern effectively. If the election were held today (and it won't be) the polls suggest that is what would happen, particularly if new and younger voters show.

I am pleased and proud to announce that NONE of the "worst possible VP picks" included in my DKOS poll http://www.dailykos.com/... was actually selected. In order of unpopularity, we successfully prevented the naming of:

Hillary Clinton (21%)
Geraldine Ferraro (15%)
John Edwards (12%)
Evan Bayh (12%)
Carrot Top (10%)
Jesse Jackson Sr. (9%)

and seven other truly terrible posibilities. Can the netroots use collective power to blackball candidates? YES WE CAN!

Congratulations, Joe, and thanks, Barack, for listening!

The fact that only 4 Senators stood to protect the people of the United States from the KGB like activities of the FBI and Mr. Mukasey shows how far wacked this country has gone.

If you have not heard the news..... Then you are not keeping up.

Here is your October Surprise... The FBI will be able to get all your information, blood type, telephone and email records, and you don't even have to break the law or be seen as a threat to the U.S govenment.

We can thank Schumer, Feinstein, Bayh, and Landrieu, who helped confirm Mukasey,

Gasoline prices peaked at about the 4th of July.  Bush approval has been improving steadily ever since -- in lockstep with gas prices.

Mysteriously, McCain, whom everyone knows to be Bush's slightly-less-evil twin, is improving in the polls.  I say it's cause and effect.  Gas prices down, Bush approval up, McCain approval up.  Maybe I'm wrong, but it's not the kind of thing we or the Democrats running for office can afford to neglect.  

see the link.

bush approval and gasoline prices

Pollster is not only a fine site for poll data, but also has top-notch people writing about polls and poll methodology.

As to today's Zogby poll, which has McCain +5 and which has generated a certain amount of Chicken Littleism, Moore at Pollster says it's a very strange poll.

All pollsters, it seems, eventually find themselves with what Andy Kohut once referred to as "loopy" results.

This time, it's Zogby's turn to confuse the masses. His latest Reuters/Zogby poll, based on a sample of 1,089 "likely voters" drawn from listed telephone numbers, conducted Aug. 14-16, 2008, shows McCain over Obama by 46% to 41%.

What makes the poll especially strange, even after taking into consideration that it has screened out whoever they consider to be unlikely to vote, is that it only includes people with listed telephone numbers.

For those who want some comfort in this apparently tightening race, take heart that McCain seems to consistently poll below 50% in general election matchups with Obama in his home state.  This is rather pathetic for someone who served as Arizona's senator for over 20 years.  He should be coasting away to victory in his home state.  But alas, no...

I'm not too incredibly worried about this latest poll, as it's the first poll that I've seen where McCain is ahead after Obama has clinched the nomination.  That being said, it does show that we can't take this election for granted, either.  The winning conditions are there for the Democrats to take the White House, but we need a better reason to get voters to vote for Obama other than running against Bush's third term.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/...

Obama's support among Democrats fell 9 percentage points this month to 74 percent, while McCain has the backing of 81 percent of Republicans. Support for Obama, an Illinois senator, fell 12 percentage points among liberals, with 10 percent of liberals still undecided compared to 9 percent of conservatives.

OBAMA NEEDS TO WORK ON BASE

"Conservatives were supposed to be the bigger problem for McCain," Zogby said. "Obama still has work to do on his base. At this point McCain seems to be doing a better job with his."

Cross-posted from DMIBlog

Today the Drum Major Institute (DMI -- where I'm director of research) released its first annual Survey on the Middle Class and Public Policy.  The nationwide poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group, aimed to learn how those Americans who see themselves as middle class (the vast majority of us, it turns out) think about the direction of the country, public policy ideas that could improve the nation, and their relationship with their own elected representatives. What we found were middle-class households filled with "fearful families": Americans worried about the present, pessimistic about the future, but not nearly so divided on issues of public policy as the typical media reports of a country divided by red and blue might lead us to believe. In fact, there’s broad bipartisan support for a range of progressive policies.

Okay, here's another, I know, I know diary.
But I think there's enough tea leaves out there to suggest Mark Warner will be Obama's VP and make everyone very happy.

Of course, I'm just pulling this out of my you know where (as Markos would say).

We all know the rumors that Obama really always wanted Warner, but Warner turned Obama down.  I just don't think you turn down the next President of the United States.

Let's look at the tea leaves:

Down from 50-41 a month ago.  Among 1,547 likely voters.  So, it's a big sample of likely voters.

The good news is that Obama's still ahead despite McCain keeping him on the defensive nearly every day for a month, and he's now winning independents.  The bad news is that the lead has slipped a bit, and Obama is doing worse among white men and older voters, perhaps reflecting increased foreign policy concerns.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

Note the poll's start date is July 16, which explains how Edwards is able to score 4%.

Richardson, Bayh, Webb, Sebelius, Kaine, and Clark also score in the single digits.

Methodology is phone interviews and online, but given the fixed sample should be reasonably accurate with +/- 3 MOE.

Interesting stuff--don't know that it weighs at all on Obama's decision, but since it seems decidedly not to be Clinton, at least Biden would be the next most popular.

Not everyone is as naive as the Straussians assume. There is beginning to be lots of speculation concerning the Russo-Georgian conflict that erupted a little more than a week ago. HuffingtonPost.com had a particularly interesting editorial piece of speculation Sunday that neither focused on oil, the territorial dispute itself nor the possibility of war profiteering by crony capitalists, as per usual of late. (Notice how speculation becomes the normative way to process the news when government becomes secretive?)

Nevertheless, as a way of establishing the context, the article by investigative journalist Joe Lauria, Did McCain Help Bait Russia Into Georgia? hearkened to Eisenhower's warning about the "Military Industrial Complex" and the Cold War.

John McCain and Barack Obama are perfectly tied in Ohio, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling (August 12-14, 2008 survey of 950 likely General Election voters)

Obama had led in PPP’s June and July polls of the state. It’s 45-45 with 10% undecided.

It seems that 17% of democrats are voting for McCain, and 8% are undecided. Most of them white and older in age. I guess Ohio would be a state that the Clintons need to go to to stump for Obama.

Here are the details.