Reports of a surging McCain are greatly exaggerated. While Obama and McCain are mobilizing supporters and maintaining a close race, the numbers on this most recent ABC/WaPo poll have changed about as much as the other national polls - by a point or two, Obama leading.

Presidential choice RV 8/19-22 (July) (June)

Obama 49 (50) (49)

McCain 43 (42) (45)

The Registered Voter numbers (prior to the Biden announcement) are +6 Obama, but WaPo also offers Likely Voter numbers with trends (who is a likely voter this year remains unclear). This is a good example of current LV screens favoring McCain, whose demographic of older voters fits better into LV classification [more on LV's here from Mark Blumenthal]:

Presidential choice LV 8/19-22 (July) (June)
Obama  49 (49) (47)
McCain 45 (46) (48)

As for particulars:

The focus on foreign policy crises over the past month, including the Russian invasion of Georgia, has played to McCain's perceived strengths among the electorate. He holds 2 to 1 leads over Obama in the new poll as the candidate with better knowledge of world affairs and the one who would make a better commander in chief. He is also regarded as superior to Obama in combating international terrorism and has a slender advantage on international affairs generally, the latter thanks to a clear edge among independents.

But on the question of who is better equipped to deal with specific foreign policy problems, McCain's advantages are less apparent. Voters rate McCain and Obama evenly on handling the situation in Iraq, and McCain has a negligible advantage in dealing with U.S. relations with Russia.

And it is Obama who continues to hold a lead on dealing with the nation's flagging economy, although his margin on that crucial question is somewhat narrower than it was a month ago. Where Obama is strongest is in public assessments of his candidacy and personality. He has a better than 2 to 1 edge as the more optimistic candidate and a 21-point advantage on who would do more to stand up to special interests.

Although both candidates have tried to stress their desire to govern in a bipartisan fashion, voters by a 12-point margin see Obama as the one more likely to work cooperatively with Republicans and Democrats in Congress.

Usual enthusiasm gap:

Nevertheless, McCain's candidacy cannot match Obama's on enthusiasm. More voters are enthusiastic about Obama's run than McCain's, and while almost all of those who support a candidate are enthusiastically behind their pick, Obama's backers are about twice as likely to call themselves "very enthusiastic," 52 to 28 percent.

This is a bit different, though:

As for the general tenor of the campaign, about two-thirds, 64 percent, said Obama is primarily focused on addressing the issues; 45 percent said so of McCain. On McCain's campaign, about as many, 48 percent, said he was instead mainly focused on attacking Obama.

Our friends, the ex-Republicans:

Independents overall remain about evenly split in their vote preferences: 45 percent support Obama, 43 percent McCain. Each candidate garners an identical 59 percent favorable rating from independents, underscoring some voters' tough choices ahead.

Separately, Polling Report has a good summary of the Biden reaction with the voters. Between Fox and ABC/WaPo polls, the Biden choice makes no difference among 75% of responders (ABC/WaPo), and is a wash among Fox responders (Dems like the choice 3:1, opposite with the GOP). [Gallup and Rasmussen agree, but note that older voters like Biden, complementing Obama's appeal with younger voters.]

Bottom line is that, for now, the electorate remains polarized. Perhaps the best way (and maybe the only way) to break through is to elect a Democrat and show they can govern effectively. If the election were held today (and it won't be) the polls suggest that is what would happen, particularly if new and younger voters show.

Want to have fun with polls? This is a great one to play with.

Start with Marc Ambinder earlier today (referring to the Q-poll with Obama up by 9):

Note: be wary of likely voter screens at this early stage; registered voters are usually a bit more palatable.

That's exellent advice, which you can see on display tonight with the the ABC/WaPo poll.

Using the preferred standard of Registered Voters:

7/13/08 (6/08), +/-3

Obama 50 (49)
McCain 42 (45)

Of course, if you just look at all adults (less preferred):

7/13/08 (6/08), +/-3

Obama 51 (48)
McCain 39 (42)

It's not in the WaPo data, but ABC World News also chose to present likely voters, whio showed a much narrower 3 point lead for Obama. The problem with that is that no one really knows what a likely voter is. ABC (Stephanopolous) purported to show a dropping enthusiasm gap compared to a few months ago, but the WaPo numbers show a steady 75% certain to vote for Obama and 68% for McCain. By, the way, it's a 10 point RV lead for Obama if you include Nader and Barr.

Oh, and George W. Bush is at 28%, lowest ever for this poll.

Under Bush, do you think America's image in the rest of the world has gotten better or gotten worse?

            Better   Worse   Same (vol.)   No opinion
7/13/08        10       82        6              2

In fact, ABC and the other networks are right that there's a 'close the deal' aspect to these numbers, especially in regard to foreign affairs. However, the dominant issue, as noted this am, is the economy, the consensus 'most important' issue; on that, Obama leads McCain 54-35, and is the poll's key number, along woth the albatross known as George W Bush.

Poll recipients would like Obama to specify more about what 'change' means, and on the whole

The overall political climate still bodes poorly for Republicans this fall, but the presidential race is relatively close in part because of persistent doubts about both candidates. Nearly three-quarters said some things about McCain worry them and nearly two-thirds said so of Obama.

It's only July, and it ain't over. But McCain is getting killed on the economy, and Bush's press conference performancve today isn't going to help.

And take note; for all the doubts about Obama there are more about McCain. Someone should tell ABC News.

Update [2008-7-16 10:15:40 by DemFromCT]: First Read:

(And right now, pollsters will tell you that with older voters leaning McCain these days, any likely voter model is going to favor McCain for now. If Obama moves younger voters as well as many observers assume come October, the likely voter numbers could change). In this poll, when you expand it to include all adults, Obama’s lead is 12 points (51%-39%). And two, 79% in the poll believe that Obama is an optimist versus 54% who say that about McCain. How many times has the more pessimistic candidate won a presidential election?

The networks will be in their "Why isn't he leading by more?" tizzy as they fight to keep this close. Here's the straight poop:

The new survey shows Obama running ahead of McCain by 48 percent to 42 percent among all adults. Among registered voters, the margin is essentially the same -- 49 percent to 45 percent. At this point four years ago, Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry held identical leads over President Bush among all adults and among registered voters.

McCain will be running into stiff headwinds over the next five months. Bush's approval rating hit another low in Post-ABC polling and now is 29 percent, with 68 percent saying they disapprove of the job he is doing -- 54 percent strongly. Among the dwindling number who approve of the way Bush is handling his job, 80 percent back McCain. Among the much higher number who disapprove, 26 percent support McCain.

In general, 57 percent said McCain would continue to lead the country as Bush has and 38 percent said he would chart a new course.

Two other indicators point to problems for McCain. Dissatisfaction with the direction of the country hit an all-time high this month, with 84 percent saying the nation is now seriously on the wrong track. And asked which party they favor for the House this fall, 52 percent said Democratic and 37 percent said Republican.

Obama's got work to do, and those tasks (not his lead) are highlighted by ABC:

One of the challenges for Obama in terms of likely voters is the fact that his support relies heavily on young adults, whose turnout on Election Day is far less reliable than their elders'.

Obama, more broadly, also faces significant unease with his resume, with just half of Americans, 50 percent, saying he's experienced enough to serve as president. Forty-six percent think that's not so, a large number to lose on the basic question of qualifications.

Also, in the two most reliable swing voter groups in presidential elections, Obama and McCain run evenly among independents, and McCain leads by 14 points among white Catholics. (In a shift, McCain's doing better this month than last among women, particularly married white women, while Obama's doing better among men.)Obama has work to do in his base, as well: Among Democrats who supported Hillary Clinton for president, about one in four, 24 percent, prefer McCain over Obama, and 13 percent pick someone else or say they wouldn't vote. Those are essentially unchanged from an ABC/Post poll last month, before Clinton suspended her campaign and offered Obama a fulsome endorsement.

In other words, the McCain ceiling and the Obama ceiling are totally different. If the election were held today, Obama wins by a little. If he does any consolidation (look at the rest), he wins more. And let's at least put one silly concept out to pasture, okay?

Obama is not disproportionately weaker among Clinton supporters who comprised her core groups, such as women, seniors and working-class whites. Instead he's losing those who value strength and experience over change, who doubt Obama's qualifications and who see him as a risky choice – mirroring his challenges among all adults more broadly.

Jimmy Carter to Ronald Reagan. Voters are generally risk-averse and the changeover to 'the change candidate' takes time. Also not highlighted by the media:

All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

             ----- Worth fighting ----   --- Not worth fighting --     No    
             NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opinion
6/15/08       34       21         13      63        9         54         3
4/13/08       34       24         11      64       11         52         2
3/2/08        34       24         11      63       12         51         2
2/1/08        34       23         11      65       11         53         1

When I say the data on Iraq is rock stable, this is what I mean. Americans have made up their mind about Iraq and they don't agree with McCain. The networks really don't like to tell you that, but the data is there.

More to come, but the bottom line is: Obama has a lead, the fundamentals haven't changed, and don't rely on one poll (or the media's need to tout their own).

We know the horse race numbers don't matter, but there's no reason in this latest ABC/WaPo poll for depressed Republicans to cheer up.

Americans Losing Confidence in Current Leadership

Americans are gloomier about the direction of the country than at any point since 1992, and Democrats have matched their biggest advantage in 25 years as the party better able to deal with the nation's main problems, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Despite more than eight in 10 now saying the country is headed in the wrong direction and growing disaffection with the Republican Party, Sen. John McCain, the GOP's presumptive presidential nominee, remains competitive in a general election matchup with Sen. Barack Obama, the favorite for the Democratic nomination, and runs almost even with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Those findings indicate that McCain continues to elude some of the anger aimed at his party and at President Bush, whose own approval dipped to an all-time low in Post-ABC polling. Maintaining a separate identity will be a key to McCain's chances of winning the White House in November. Overall, Democrats enjoy a 21-point advantage over Republicans as the party best-equipped to handle the nation's problems.

McCain eludes some of the anger but not all. And that's now, before the campaign really heats up, and highlights his positions on the issues and ties him to Bush.

       May April  (+/- 3%)
McCain   44 (44)
Obama    51 (49)

The important numbers are Bush at 31 and wrong track at 82. McCain may run better than most other Republicans, but he still has to run against the fundamentals. In addition to right track/wrong track and Bush unpopularity, far more people (38%) are uncomfortable with McCain's age than an African-American President (12%) or a woman President (16%) - the explanation for the pushback against McCain 'losing his bearings'.

Obama will run as a fresh face, and do his best to highlight where McCain and Bush are inseparable (Iraq, health care and the economy). McCain will do the usual Republican shtick about "liberals and Pelosi and San Francisco values", all the things that didn't work in IL and LA special elections (there are new Dem congressmen as a consequence).

Oh, and by the way, Dems are in no hurry to see the race end (Hillary stay in-drop out is 64-35) and don't see it hurting Democrats (despite daily bloviating about this on cable TV, only 27% think it hurts and 56% think it makes no difference).

So, McCain trails by 7 compared to:

Overall, which party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a better job in coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years?

Democrats   53
Republicans 32

meaning that McCain loses less. Still, he loses, with numbers consistent with the latest LA Times Bloomberg poll. And with short coat tails, Republicans and their severely damaged brand are in real trouble this fall.

An aging John McCain doesn't look so good against either of the Democratic candidates.

A surge of Democratic allegiance is boosting Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton alike in match-ups against John McCain, with change vs. experience as the roadmap for voter preferences in the 2008 general election.

Obama's advantage over McCain is the bigger one in this ABC News/Washington Post poll, a 12-point lead compared to Clinton's 6-point edge. McCain's endorsement by George W. Bush may not help: The president's back at his career low approval rating, matching Harry Truman in long-term unpopularity.

Was that a gratuitous knock against McCain's elderly status? Nah. And get used to it. McCain's age is a big deal. From the WaPo version:

Another obstacle for McCain might be his age. More than a quarter of those polled said they are less inclined to support McCain because, if elected, he would be the oldest person ever to become president. The percentage discouraged by McCain's age is more than double the numbers who would be less enthusiastic about supporting Obama due to his being an African American or Clinton because she is a woman.

But McCain has more problems than that. We've covered McCain's problems with his base, and the underwhelming enthusiasm of the shrinking GOP base. Now this (ABC):

But McCain is losing three in 10 conservatives to either Obama or Clinton, far more than he likely could stand to see slip away. Democratic presidential candidates since 1988 have won 15 to 20 percent of conservatives, not 30 percent.

That poses a potentially difficult straddle for McCain – reassuring conservatives on his right without alienating moderates and independents in the center. Currently many more Americans call Obama "about right" ideologically, 56 percent, than McCain, 41 percent.

And then there's the war (WaPo):

About two-thirds of Americans disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job and think the war was not worth fighting, and most hold those positions "strongly." A slim majority also doubts the United States is making progress toward restoring civil order in Iraq, even as McCain and others extol recent successes there.

These views are closely related to voters' choices: McCain does poorly against Clinton and Obama among those who disapprove of the president and those opposing the war.

Among independents, those who see improvements in Iraq break for McCain against either Democrat; six in 10 of those more skeptical of progress would go for a Democrat.

And then there's the hugely unpopular George "Albatross" Bush (ABC):

Today's endorsement by Bush may not do wonders for McCain: The president has a 32 percent job approval rating, matching his career low, outdone among postwar presidents only by Truman, Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter.

While 65 percent of Republicans approve, that's a new low for Bush within his own party. His approval drops to 9 percent among Democrats and 32 percent among independents.

Bush's support has been as steady as it is low, between 32 and 36 percent in more than a dozen ABC/Post polls since December 2006. He hasn't seen majority approval in 38 months, matching Truman's record from 1949-1952.

These are terrible numbers for McCain. Nothing is definitive and permanent, and sure, it's only a March poll. Also note, this poll is 'adults'; RVs and LVs this far out is almost impossible to figure. But some of the things highlighted here cannot be changed. You can't teach youth (to steal from the basketball bromide about height), McCain is not a change candidate, and Iraq opinions are strongly held.

And then there's the economy. The party in power is going to take a beating for the recession we're in, and economics is hardly McCain's strength.

All in all, the poll helps brings perspective, and echoes the NY Times and RT Strategies in putting McCain behind Obama, and no worse than tied with Clinton.

No guarantees, no predictions, but don't be deceived; McCain starts behind and the attention garnered by the dueling Democrats is not helping McCain any more than Bush's endorsement will.