Skip to main content

Cross-posted at ACASignups.net
I'm about 95% sure that the HHS Dept. is going to release their official January ACA exchange enrollment report on Monday. The prior monthly reports have all come out on or around the 10th of each subsequent month, so Monday is the most logical time.

With that in mind, here's my own January prediction (and for the hell of it, February and March as well):

--the most recent official (if very vague) Private Exchange-based QHP enrollment figure we have is "around 3 million as of this week" stated on 1/23 by HHS Sec. Sebelius. Let's assume 3 million even as of, say, January 21st. She also said that "over 800,000" had enrolled in January. Since the prior official number was 2.153M as of 12/28 (847,000 difference), figure around 27K in those final 3 days of 2013.

--this means appx. 820,000 in the first 21 days of January, or around 39,000 per day.

--At 39K/day, that would mean another 390,000 people in the last 10 days of January. However, there was definitely a drop-off in the 2nd half of the month, since you had to be enrolled by 1/15 in order to qualify for coverage on 2/1. The question is, how much of a drop-off?

If the drop-off was around 40% (which sounds about right to me), that means that it was actually around 44K/day from 1/1 - 1/15 and another 26.6K/day from 1/16-1/21 (as well as the remaining 10 days of the month). This would add up to around another 266K people from the 22nd - 31st.

If this is close to the case, that would mean a total of 3.0M + 266K = 3,266,000 people as of 1/31/14. However, due to the HHS Dept's annoying policy of using the end of the calendar WEEK instead of the calendar MONTH (that's why the December report only goes through 12/28, not 12/31), the January report will likely include Saturday, February 1st as well. So, let's add another 27K+ or so...

I'm calling the January HHS Exchange-Based Private QHP Total an even 3.3 Million even as of 2/1/14.

"But wait," I can hear you thinking; "The Total QHP on your spreadsheet is already up to 3.3 million!" Yes, but that includes a couple hundred thousand people who won't be included on the January HHS report--direct ("off-exchange") enrollments, SHOP enrollments and some "Uncertain" enrollments as well. The Private, Individual On-Exchange-only QHP tally is only at around 3.03 million at the moment; that's the number I expect to hit 3.3 million, which would push the total QHP up to around 3.5M+.

For February, I'm assuming a similar pattern to January, but with enrollments running perhaps 10% higher for the first half of the month (around 725K) and about 20% higher for the second half of the month (ie, still a drop-off, but not nearly as steep as the 3/31 deadline is creeping up). This would be another 415K, for a total of around 1.14 million in February (remember, it only has 28 days, canceling out most of the % gain). That would bring us to around 4.44 million as of 2/28.

Finally, there's March. with the final deadline (or face an actual penalty...albeit not a huge one) approaching, expect a December-like surge of enrollments. If January and February were around 1.1 million apiece, I have to figure that March will be somewhere between 1.5 - 2.0 million. I just can't see it going any higher than that, but will be happy to be proven wrong.

If I'm right, that should make the final total as of 3/31 somewhere in the 6.0 - 6.5 million range.

In other words, I don't think we're going to quite reach the original CBO 7.0 million projection number, but we should come very close...which is why the CBO just revised their own projections down a notch.

In other news, a fairly quiet day today:

A few thousand more in Maryland...

Maryland: Private QHP up 8%, Medicaid up 5% since January

A few hundred more in Hawaii...

Hawaii: Private QHP up 15% since January 18

...and a few hundred LESS in New Mexico (I misinterpreted a SHOP report last week):

New Mexico: SHOP correction (422 people total, down from 711)

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site