Musings Over Morning Coffee
by DemFromCT
Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:29:20 AM PDT
Kos will have a Pennsylvania prediction thread later this morning, but since I come from a state that's already voted, I will spare you the arrogance of demanding the primary be over already (that will come after the votes are counted).
I still find myself firmly in the camp of "Democratic voting? Good!" as thousands of new voters get motivated to register Democratic, turning states ever bluer. I see the lazy media dragging out their "Democratic fratricide" and "unnamed Democratic officials worry about primary" themes and stories. But having been around for a while, I can tell you there's an infinite number of Democratic officials worried about something, and they are always willing to speak to the press about it. They usually live in DC, conveniently for the newspapers, and they don't know squat about what's going on outside the beltway (think George Will lecturing the country about the evils of elitism, or David Broder on the appeal of Mike Bloomberg, Joe Lieberman, and other third party centrists).
One thing seems quite evident prior to getting the vote totals: while Obama has a floor, McCain and Cinton have ceilings, and they've already hit them. This isn't just my idea. Two of the sharper professional analysts have come to live in the same neighborhood. While noting that things can always change in the general election, check out Charlie Cook writing about Obama's chemisty:
This unusual combination created the equivalent in Democratic politics of nitroglycerin. It has already overpowered all but Clinton and is pushing its beneficiary closer and closer to the nomination, despite the inherent advantages that she began with. Obama’s chemistry experiment seems to defy all the normal rules of nomination politics. Could it continue working for him in a general election? That’s a 50-50 proposition, but it certainly would contribute to one of the oddest configurations that the two major parties have offered voters in our lifetimes.
More blunt about Bush's most ardent courtier, Stu Rothenberg says it all in the headline:
For McCain, This Could Be as Good As It's Going to Get
Cook and Rothenberg, seasoned professionals, know enough to look to November for the real story and not waste time on the crap that ABC tried to peddle at their debate (just check polling on national priorities to know what questions to ask, fellas... it's really not that hard). Meanwhile, in the WaPo Dan Balz writes about Beyond Pa., a Weakened Clinton, which is why beyond today there's really no race any more. For that reason, there will be no North Carolina debate.
The North Carolina Democratic Party said Monday that the forum in that state, scheduled for next Sunday night, had been canceled. Mr. Obama had not committed to the date. The cancellation comes as a disappointment for CBS, which had offered the candidates prime air time after the newsmagazine "60 Minutes" for the debate. Katie Couric, the anchor of the "CBS Evening News," would have moderated the debate.
The cancellation was because of political considerations by both candidates, said Paul Friedman, a senior vice president at CBS News.
Hmmm. There was a terrific debate at Yearly Kos moderated by Joan McCarter and Matt Bai, far more substantive than the one on ABC, and the CBS debate has been canceled. Welcome to the future of media (and see you at Netroots Nation).
In the meantime, given that it's primary day in PA, let's simply advise you to ignore the leaked exit polls early in the day, and settle in for a day of politics and democracy (small d). It's been a long time coming, but the end of the Bush era is in sight. And it will be covered, substantively, on the internets.
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